Where My Mind has Wandered

The holy father of all brand problems.

No disrespect intended, but the Catholic church has a brand problem. Combine managment scandals, transparency issues, sex scandals, and positions on social issues that make conservative Republicans look soft and cuddly and you have an organization with a tarnished image. 

Can the newly elected Pope help address these issues? I'm no Vatican expert, but a bold change in leadership can be a step in the right direction, and Pope Francis already has some characteristics that can help the brand. First and foremost is his perceived humility, which is an important post-scandal quality. As a man born outside of Western Europe who never lived or worked within the Vatican he can also claim outsider status, which can be an important quality during a period of reform.

Is a humble 78-year-old outsider the right choice to reform the Curia? Maybe, maybe not. One would have to think that the Cardinals who elected him thought he could make a difference, assuming that was a priority during the conclave. Certainly the perception of corruption and mismanagement needs to be superceeded with something new and different. It will be interesting to observe over the next few years. 

Will the new breed of portable gaming consoles succeed?

As to be expected, there are many stories and trends emerging from CES. One that intrigues me is the emergence, and albeit slow, maturation of mid-sized PC gaming consoles.  By mid-sized I am referring to something larger than a handheld gaming device (i.e. the PlayStation Vita or Nintendo DS) but smaller than an Xbox 370 or PlayStation 3. They are meant to be portable, and used either as a handheld or tabletop device, but provide the kind of robust gaming experience more associated with consoles than small handhelds. By maturation think growing from a tween to a teen, but not yet entering the real world of adulthood (or significant retail presence).

All of these solutions are essentially an extension of PC-gaming into handheld territory, except for the Wii U GamePad. The success of the segment would do a lot for the PC platform, which has seen sales of games ticking constantly upwards even as sales of games for consoles have flattened out.

The dominant storylines in this space have been that consoles are morphing into home entertainment hubs, meant as much for streaming films as playing video games, while PCs have outpaced consoles in delivering performance. And even though it is harder and harder to find PC titles in retail stores, e-commerce and the migration to downloaded content and the success of Steam has more than made up for the declining retail footprint. These storylines are accurate, but I can’t help feeling that a lot of PC sales data, which includes downloads of Temple Run, online subscriptions and revenue from freemium ad sales hopelessly skews the PC vs. console comparison.

But are these mid-range-PC console hybrids being developed for Angry Birds? Probably not, and I don’t envision the new owners of a Razer Edge spending their time playing Bejewled. I don’t think you can claim console gaming is dying, as many have tried to, any more than you can claim that the upward trajectory for PC game title sales will guarantee the success of the emerging mid-size PC gaming console. Will avid FPS and RPG gamers be willing to trade screen-size and performance for the convenience of play-anywhere portability?

What I am seeing, both as an avid gamer and someone who is interested in the industry, is that gamers move from device to device based upon their situation and will tailor their game play to the device they are using. My personal experience is probably fairly common. I will play a first-person shooter like Call of Duty on a PC or console, but find them unplayable on a tablet. I will play FIFA Soccer on a console, but never on a PC. I will simulate FIFA Soccer games in manager-mode on a tablet when commuting, but rarely play actual games because I find the controls so awkward on a tablet. I play Angry Birds on my phone and tablet, but the Xbox 360 copy of Angry Birds my son received as a holiday present is sitting, still shrink-wrapped on a shelf.

The latest research suggests my nomadic gaming existence is common among gamers. There is no doubt that smartphones and tablets are used for gaming, with a number of studies suggesting that gaming is ranked in the top-three most frequent uses of mobile devices. Data from a NewZoo study indicates that 22% of all American gamers play on all four screens (console, tablet, smartphone, and PC). What none of these studies will tell you is what people are playing on each of those screens. For a new category of handheld PC game devices to succeed they must find a sweet spot that matches features and titles that people will play on the new devices.

The two devices that are generating the most coverage from CES are the Nvidia Shield and the Razer Edge.

 

Shield from Nvidia

The Shield is a handheld Android device that Wired writer Chris Kohler described as a smartphone glued to an Xbox controller. Will people choose to play more complex games like Battlefield 3 or Assassins Creed on a 5-inch 1280x720p screen, even if the new 72-core NVIDIA GeForce^® GPU Quad-core A15 CPU can deliver the performance needed to do so (and I am not saying it can? )But the Shield features an HDMI out port that allows you to connect it to a TV, which can give you the large screen you want for a complex game. It remains to be seen if gamers will want the portability that the form factor offers. Perhaps they will, but not if big titles like Skyrim, Call of Duty, Mass Effect, and any of the EA Sports titles don’t perform well on the device.

From what I have read you aren’t going to find many of the big titles in the Android storefront, which is going to be a challenge for Android platforms like the Ouya. Your option for such titles then comes from PC streaming. If you have a pretty solid gaming PC in your house that as a GeForce 600 Series video card in it you can stream games from your PC to the handheld console. But that restricts game-play to your house, and I would think taking the console on the road would be its biggest selling point.

There are also some big questions with streaming. One is latency. While Nvidia describes it as ‘low-latency,’ and goes as far as to claim the platform has ‘no lag,’ no competitive multiplayer is going to spend a lot of time on a platform with latency, it will ruin their gaming experience. Only time will tell if the Shield can really deliver a lag-free experience over dual-band WiFi. This GameSport review suggests that perhaps the streaming performance is good enough. The biggest question for me, is that if you have already spent $1,000 to $2,500 on a sweet PC gaming rig, with a big, crisp screen with a $250+ graphics card, why in the world would you want to stream games from it to a 5-inch screen? It strikes me as a bit of a leap of faith. And I am not going to stream it just so I can play using my TV, because odds are I have traditional console in the house already hooked up to the TV.

 

Edge from Razer

The Edge from Razer is really a 10.1-inch Windows 8 tablet that has an optional, detachable two-handed gamepad controller. The Edge Pro model delivers the best performance specifications, with a Core i7 CPU, 8GB of RAM and up to a 256GB SSD. The Edge Pro is going to cost $1,300 and the controller adds $250, so this is an investment for avid gamers, not a tablet you might buy on a whim for the kids. For $1,550 you are only getting 1366 x 768 resolution. But while PC gamers will covet a nice 21-inch or larger screen running 1900 x 1200, 1366 x 768 is probably serviceable for a 10-inch screen. And nothing is stopping Razer from matching the 2048 x 1536 resolution of the iPad 3 except perhaps a limit on what people are willing to pay for such a device.

The benefit of the Edge for a serious gamer is that you can actually load full-blown PC games onto the device. You don’t have to rely on streaming like you do on the Shield, which means you can play the games you like anywhere, not just in your home. The challenge is that you need to find consumers who are willing to pay $1,500 to play their favorite games on a 10-inch screen. If I am home I probably want the large screen, so the portability is of marginal benefit, and do I really want to play Borderlands 2 on the subway? And if I do want to play Borderlands 2 on the subway, am I willing to spend $1,500 to make it happen?

 

Wii U GamePad

The Wii U GamePad from Nintendo is an interesting development that needs to be considered in a discussion of mid-sized portable game consoles. It is available only as part of the larger Wii U console package, but operates as a standalone device. The GamePad touchscreen is small, only 6.2 inches, and it only delivers 854 x4 80 resolution even though the Wii U console kicks out 1920 × 1080.

I have always thought of the Wii as a social gaming console, it is something you are more likely to use with two or more people rather than on your own. The Wii U GamePad challenges this a bit. You can only use two Wii U GamePads at the same time, and most software development, for now, is focused on single GamePad use or use in combination with a traditional controller. Then there is the nature of titles available for the Wii, which tend to be arcade-style games geared towards younger gamers. Would I play Super Mario Kart or LEGO Indiana Jones on the Wii U GamePad? Sure. Will I play the version of Mass Effect 3 that was ported over to the Wii U platform? It would not be my first choice for a game like that. Sales of the Wii U haven’t been over-the-top, and I doubt Nintendo’s Q4 2012 and Q1 2013 financials are going to be awe inspiring.

 

Xi3 Piston from Valve

Valve, the company behind the Steam online game storefront, which delivers PC-games via download, has announced that they are developing a simplified PC code named Piston that will connect to your TV and be driven with a console-like controller. This isn’t a portable PC console, but it does bridge the PC and the TV and it strikes me as having a better chance of succeeding than the PC-to-console streaming approach taken by Nvidia. With just a $99 dollar box (like an Apple TV) I can play Steam titles I already have purchased for the PC on my television. That sounds promising.

By this time next year we should have a better understanding of how these mid-size portable gaming consoles will perform. By then the next-generation Xbox and PlayStation consoles should on the market, we will have Shield and Edge will have some sales numbers, and we will know if developers are successfully (and enthusiastically) porting key titles to the Wii U and Android platforms.

Who is backing up the cloud?

More and more indiviudals and organizations have given up on tape and are backing their data up in the cloud. So where is the cloud getting backed up? It might just be on tape, which strikes me as a funny concept. For more read this interesting discussion between Don Jennings of Lois Paul & Partners and Jerome Wendt, founder and principal at DCIG.

London Underground and under water

Highlighted in articles covering the flooding of the Central Line today is the growing apprehension that the London Underground is simply not ready to handle traffic during the Olympics. After enduring two years of line closures and delays one might expect things would be improving, but in my experience things have not changed much at all. There are a few lines that are pretty reliable, including the Piccadilly Line which I use most nights to get home, but even that line is often impacted by delays. The Circle Line is often closed on weekends for repairs yet the tracks are still so uneven at many spots on the line that you will get thrown across the carriage if you are not holding on with an iron grip.

Perhaps the TFL has been focusing on just a few lines it considers critical for the Olympics, as it claims online. Although as I use the Covent Garden station every work day, I can confirm their claim that "There is now less congestion at Covent Garden station, with more space to exit" is absurd. If the TFL considers the minor changes made to that station a major improvement passengers during the Olymnpics are doomed.

If the Diamond Jubilee was the first test of the supposedly upgraded susyem, that test did not go well. Reports of people "weeping on the platforms" do not insprie confidence, nor do headlines such as "Thousands of people heading home from Jubilee weekend affected by major Tube disruption." Four lines were disrupted over the weekend, including the Circle, Metropolitan, Jubilee and Bakerloo. Those disruptions were compounded by issues with commuter rail, which elected to run reduced weekend service even though large crowds were expected to travel to the city.

If it were only a long weekend, or even a single week, the London Underground might squeeze by, but there is no way they can go 16-plus days without major disruptions and line closures. I readily admit that the media loves to celebrate and exagerate failure. However, having lived in the city for two years relying largerly on public transport to get around, my advice to people attending the Olympics is to learn the bus routes. Even if you get stuck in traffic, at least you can look out the window and get a cellular signal.

BBC botches coverage of year's most boring event

The BBC has come under pretty intense fire for their handling of the Thames Diamond Jubilee Pagaent. Having watched a bit of the coverage, there is no denying it was very bad. Rain-soaked camera lenses, blown shots, and meaningless drivel from the hosts. It was not the BBC's proudest moment, and they have admitted as much.

This still frame taken from BBC footage captures the drama of the event.

What isn't discussed in the torrent of abusive coverage is what a boring event it is. Four hours of watching 1,000 uninteresting motorboats and river barges float slowly past is bad television, rain or shine. In the U.S. networks would have used a lot of canned material to cover the yawning (pun very much intended) gaps in activity. The BBC had a few such roll-ins, including a not so terrible piece on the decommissioned HMY Brittannia, but not nearly enough.

They treid to fill the gap with banter from the hosts and skits along the banks which backfired. For all the criticism of the hosts, what are they supposed to talk about? How do you discuss 1,000 rain-soaked pleasure craft and their Pimms-soaked passengers? The Queen standing still as a statue, grim smile frozen on her face, waving for nearly three hours? It just isn't a made-for-broadcast event.

One thing that did surprise me was the relative lack of military involvement. At the Trooping of the Colour and the Changing of the Guard, the military provides most of the color and shine. Yet for the Diamond Jubilee the country that was built on the power of her navy left them that navy out of the only celebration on water. Truly odd.

 

Will Toyota's Problems Help the Honda Crosstour?

Toyota makes a pretty solid car, except for the recent issues with gas pedals and floor mats. Analysts expect the resulting recalls will put a pretty big dent in Tpyota's sales, and I'd agree. If I was considering a new car purchase I'd don't think "fiery crash" would be on my feature list. So who will benefit with a large number of Toyota models suddenly off the market?

The American manufacturers, particularly Ford, are likely to benefit from the problems in the light truck category, with models like the Tundra, Tacoma, Highlander, Sequoia, and RAV4 pulled from dealer lots. Honda may also benefit from this segment of light truck buyers who don't confine themselves to American brands. The majority of truck buyers simply won't consider a such a purchase, considering a foreign truck the antithesis of of the macho truck ethos.

Buyers who were considering an Avalon are in a pickle. The Avalon is the classic frugal old man car. It is for the buyer who won't bring themselves to buy a luxury brand like a Lexus or Infinity, but still want a a plush ride. The new Avalon model is actually a pretty nice car, a big improvement over Avalon's from the early part of the decade. Those early models seemed to be Toyota's interpretation of a late century Oldsmobile or Cadillac ... a couch on wheels with the suspension of a motorboat. Where will these buyers turn now? Possibly to pre-owned luxury brands coming off lease, where the buyer can still feel like the found a good value (these buyers are often more motivated by the sense that they made a smart purchase or got a deal).

What about the Honda Crosstour? Will it benefit from Toyota's mess? I bet it will. Toyota's problems couldn't come at a better time for Honda's strange new model. The Crosstour seeks to create a space in between the sedan and the small SUV (like the BMW X3 of the Lexus RX300). Unlike other designs that have tried to find that space, like the Volvo V90 and the Subaru Outback, the Crosstour is not a tricked out station wagon. Instead it remains much closer to a sedan design, but with a longer, larger rear-end and sportier suspension. Imagine a souped up, four-door sports Accord with a hatchback. I can't really think of anything else like it on the market.

The interior is very plush, which is a smart call. I find the interiors of most crossover SUVs to be cheap compared to the sedans from the same family. The RX300 is a perfect example. The front seats are very flimsy and small, particularly when compared to the seats in the Lexus sedans. If I am going to spend that kind of money on a car I expect a high-end interior. The CrossTour meets that expectation, which will appeal to the Avalon buyer. The Crosstour also drives much more like performance sedan than an SUV. After back-to back test-drives, the Crosstour made the CR-V feel like driving a surplus army jeep. It performed well at slow speeds and when I opened it up on the highway.

The challenging aspect of the Crosstour is the hatchback element. The extra cargo space it creates might appeal to the small SUV buyer, but the driver doesn't sit nearly as high off the road in a Crosstour as they do in a small SUV. Cross the soccer mom off the list of potential buyers. The high, long rear-end limits visibility, which Honda tried to increase by extending the glass down into what would normally be the rear door panel on a hatchback. The extra visibility is a plus, but it is interrupted by a wide, horizontal band which I found distracting. I'm sure it would fade as an issue over time -- you would get used to it -- but new car buyers don't spend much time driving cars before they purchase them, so I'd expect it to be a problem in showroom discussions.

American Music Awards? You are kidding, right?

So the big controversy is apparently that Adam Lambert was a bit more sexual than he should have been during his AMA awards performance. Based on what I've heard it sounds like he might have crossed the line a bit, but it is based upon what I've heard. I didn't see it. Why would I?The AMA? Isn't that the American Medical Association or something? I mean, come on, the AMA awards? Broadcast television? Who watches that crap? If you are going to watch reality television you deserve to see such nonsense, particularly an awards show. I'd say you were begging for it.

I have to admit that I actually know who Adam Lambert is. He came in second on some reality TV show. I have no idea which one, I've never seen it. But he is popular enough that he crept into the distant edge of my awareness. Which is more than I can say of the AMA awards. Never heard of the event until Adam Lambert decided to thrust his pelvis into some dancer's face. Probably the best thing that ever happened to the AMA awards, but they still came in second to Sunday Night Football. The Eagles at the Bears. Decent competition, two big market teams. But still, huge yawn.

Sarah Palin's Prospects

Sarah Plain can work the conservative speaker's circuit and make a living from speaker's fees through the next election. After that requests will come less often, even the tabloids will lose interest, and eventually someone in the Palin family will need to get a job. Maybe she can eke out a few more years on the church circuit, but I don't know what speaker's fees are like on the religious right.

Her brand is so tarnished on the national stage it is hard to imagine her coming back. Perhaps Fox News will give her a paid seat as a commentator or host in the run-up to the next election? Or she can hire a ghostwriter and try to make it is a less-vicious, intellectually vapid version of Ann Coulter. The odds on her success are quite long with both those scenarios, but she can try.

Fortunately for this country being an elected official will no longer be an option for Sarah Palin. There is no way she can survive her post-election performance as a Governor and her decision to step down. Her career as an elected official is completely over.  Now she has no track record and no home base of operation. Just ask Rudy Giuliani how difficult it is to run for national office when your home state loathes you.

The Bing Thing

I expect the new search offering from Microsoft, named Bing, will generate as much social media chatter as it will coverage from the traditional media, or air time from paid placement. And I expect that much of that chatter will be negative, as the masses are quick to attack the evil empire of Microsoft. Google is cool geek, Microsoft is uncool geek, and on and on. The launch of Bing will also generate some really strong discussion about the nature of search and how search may evolve. Google may have won the battle for search, but war will never end.

Google improved the search engine enough to essentially kill the search directory model, which preceded it. It's simple presentation, meaty algorithms, and unobtrusive presentation of paid results provides a solid framework for organic search results.

In developing Bing Microsoft did not tilt at an organic search windmill. Instead they are focusing on certain tasks, like finding medical advice or shopping for electronics or travel. Bing will layer subcategories onto the organic search results, allowing the user to see the search results in logical groups. Users will be able to filter results by type, such as articles, reviews, coupons, retailers, etc, or by location, or price. This may sound like a step back towards search directories, which tried to organize information by topic. In a way it is adding a directory-like layer, but in a manner which provides the user with an additional line if inquiry beyond the initial organic results. The ability to divide search results into pre-set categories is something Google does not offer, and could be a competitive advantage for Bing.

It is easy to nay say, or to suggest that Microsoft will ruin the experience by simple being Microsoft. Microsoft is rightly accused of trying to think too much for user, which can make Microsoft software extremely frustrating at times. To think that Google doesn't do the same thing in some ways, despite their stripped-down user experience, is perhaps a mistake. The all-powerful algorithm is thinking for the user. The more information the user provides Google in the search query, the better the results, but not all users are that search savvy. Bing wants to offer a next step for those users, essentially saying to them "can I organize these search results for you in a away that might be more helpful?" It is in the delicate balance of offering additional options, versus forcing them upon the user, that Bing may succeed or fail.

In focusing on shopping and advice, Microsoft has positioned Bing right where the most money is spent in pay-per-click advertising. Bing's paid model doesn't look too different from Google's, but starting where the money strikes me as smart business and might help generate some real revenue. As revenue is an important measure of the success of such ventures, the ability to generate some revenue would drive additional interest and put some wind in Bing's sails.

Todd Helton turning into Wade Boggs?

Todd Helton and Wade Boggs share a career batting average of .328, and Helton's career on base percentage is .428, just 7 points higher than Boggs OBP of .415. Helton has averaged 46 doubles a year, Boggs averaged 38. Both won gold gloves at an infield corner position. The big difference is Helton's power. Helton has averaged 30 home runs per 162 games while Boggs averaged just 8. That said, Helton hasn't hit 30 home runs since 2004 and he is on pace to hit only 13 in 2009.

What Helton is doing this season is getting on base, sporting a .341 battaing average and .398 OPS, and if he can stay healthy for 150 games and keep this pace he will have 189 hits and 26 doubles. Those stats look a lot like Wade Boggs between 1989 and 1991. Helton is even sporting some Boggs-like facial hair.