Where My Mind has Wandered

Will Toyota's Problems Help the Honda Crosstour?

Toyota makes a pretty solid car, except for the recent issues with gas pedals and floor mats. Analysts expect the resulting recalls will put a pretty big dent in Tpyota's sales, and I'd agree. If I was considering a new car purchase I'd don't think "fiery crash" would be on my feature list. So who will benefit with a large number of Toyota models suddenly off the market?

The American manufacturers, particularly Ford, are likely to benefit from the problems in the light truck category, with models like the Tundra, Tacoma, Highlander, Sequoia, and RAV4 pulled from dealer lots. Honda may also benefit from this segment of light truck buyers who don't confine themselves to American brands. The majority of truck buyers simply won't consider a such a purchase, considering a foreign truck the antithesis of of the macho truck ethos.

Buyers who were considering an Avalon are in a pickle. The Avalon is the classic frugal old man car. It is for the buyer who won't bring themselves to buy a luxury brand like a Lexus or Infinity, but still want a a plush ride. The new Avalon model is actually a pretty nice car, a big improvement over Avalon's from the early part of the decade. Those early models seemed to be Toyota's interpretation of a late century Oldsmobile or Cadillac ... a couch on wheels with the suspension of a motorboat. Where will these buyers turn now? Possibly to pre-owned luxury brands coming off lease, where the buyer can still feel like the found a good value (these buyers are often more motivated by the sense that they made a smart purchase or got a deal).

What about the Honda Crosstour? Will it benefit from Toyota's mess? I bet it will. Toyota's problems couldn't come at a better time for Honda's strange new model. The Crosstour seeks to create a space in between the sedan and the small SUV (like the BMW X3 of the Lexus RX300). Unlike other designs that have tried to find that space, like the Volvo V90 and the Subaru Outback, the Crosstour is not a tricked out station wagon. Instead it remains much closer to a sedan design, but with a longer, larger rear-end and sportier suspension. Imagine a souped up, four-door sports Accord with a hatchback. I can't really think of anything else like it on the market.

The interior is very plush, which is a smart call. I find the interiors of most crossover SUVs to be cheap compared to the sedans from the same family. The RX300 is a perfect example. The front seats are very flimsy and small, particularly when compared to the seats in the Lexus sedans. If I am going to spend that kind of money on a car I expect a high-end interior. The CrossTour meets that expectation, which will appeal to the Avalon buyer. The Crosstour also drives much more like performance sedan than an SUV. After back-to back test-drives, the Crosstour made the CR-V feel like driving a surplus army jeep. It performed well at slow speeds and when I opened it up on the highway.

The challenging aspect of the Crosstour is the hatchback element. The extra cargo space it creates might appeal to the small SUV buyer, but the driver doesn't sit nearly as high off the road in a Crosstour as they do in a small SUV. Cross the soccer mom off the list of potential buyers. The high, long rear-end limits visibility, which Honda tried to increase by extending the glass down into what would normally be the rear door panel on a hatchback. The extra visibility is a plus, but it is interrupted by a wide, horizontal band which I found distracting. I'm sure it would fade as an issue over time -- you would get used to it -- but new car buyers don't spend much time driving cars before they purchase them, so I'd expect it to be a problem in showroom discussions.

Infinity Ward introduces first FPK game wtih Modern Warefare 2

SANTA MONICA, Calif., Jan 21, 2010 / Infinity Ward announced today they are creating a new category in the the multiplayer game space -- the First-Person Knifing game. The FPK puts a twist on the popular First-Person Shooter (FPS) genre by making knives much more lethal than guns.

Yes this is sarcasm. I am a loyal devotee of the Call of Duty franchise, but I think there are several flaws in Modern Warfare 2. One of those flaws is the implementation of the knife and tactical knife weapons, and the perks that can increase their impact. 

For background there are two types of multiplayer game play: normal and hardcore. In hardcore mode you can kill someone with two to three bullets, depending on where you hit them and your distance from them. Using most guns in normal mode, which constitutes the vast majority of the Steam-hosted multiplayer games, it can often take six or more bullets to take someone down. The knife-related flaw is most evident in normal play.

There are two components to the flaw. First, a knife slice or stab is always a kill, no matter where on the body you are hit (if someone slices your forearm you die). Second, shooting someone who is running doesn't really slow them down, not until you hit them enough to kill them. They way the designers see it at Infinity Ward, pumping someone in the chest with an AUG HBAR a few times from 10 feet shouldn't really slow them down. They'll keep running at you until you get that 8th bullet in them, or you get a head shot. The result is that unless you have a powerful weapon, and you have 10 to 12 yards between you and your attacker, they can just sprint at you and knife you before you can gun them down.

For a game that stresses realism this strikes me as a problem. Yet, the situation can get worse with perks. Perks are improvements to your character or weapons that you gain over time as rewards.  The Marathon and Lightweight perks allow you to run faster and sprint for longer periods of time. The Commando perk increases the distance from which you can knife someone. You also run faster if you are carrying a lightweight gun. Add that all together and suddenly Kid Flash is knifing you in a blur from six feet away. 

The result is a First-Person Knifing game. Many good rounds are ruined, from my point of view, by players who simply sprint around and knife people, no matter how many rounds you pump into them. The only way to kill them is from behind or while they are busy killing one of your teammates. You can try and knife them, but if they have the Commando perk and you don't they can kill you by slicing you arm as they run by and you can't even reach them.

It isn't as bad in hardcore mode, where bullets do more damage, but of the 15-plus game modes offered only two are hardcore so your options are limited. There are other problems with MW2, but that is the one I find the most annoying. Modern Warfare 2 has racked up more than $1 Billion in retail sales so I doubt Infinity Ward is going hustle changes into the pipeline to make me happier.

Players of the first version of Modern Warfare, COD4 could tweak the settings on their servers and create multiplayer games that met their tastes, and were that the case with MW2 there would be a lot of hardcore games out there with modifications (mods) to the knives. The lack of dedicated servers is a subject for another day.

American Music Awards? You are kidding, right?

So the big controversy is apparently that Adam Lambert was a bit more sexual than he should have been during his AMA awards performance. Based on what I've heard it sounds like he might have crossed the line a bit, but it is based upon what I've heard. I didn't see it. Why would I?The AMA? Isn't that the American Medical Association or something? I mean, come on, the AMA awards? Broadcast television? Who watches that crap? If you are going to watch reality television you deserve to see such nonsense, particularly an awards show. I'd say you were begging for it.

I have to admit that I actually know who Adam Lambert is. He came in second on some reality TV show. I have no idea which one, I've never seen it. But he is popular enough that he crept into the distant edge of my awareness. Which is more than I can say of the AMA awards. Never heard of the event until Adam Lambert decided to thrust his pelvis into some dancer's face. Probably the best thing that ever happened to the AMA awards, but they still came in second to Sunday Night Football. The Eagles at the Bears. Decent competition, two big market teams. But still, huge yawn.

Sarah Palin's Prospects

Sarah Plain can work the conservative speaker's circuit and make a living from speaker's fees through the next election. After that requests will come less often, even the tabloids will lose interest, and eventually someone in the Palin family will need to get a job. Maybe she can eke out a few more years on the church circuit, but I don't know what speaker's fees are like on the religious right.

Her brand is so tarnished on the national stage it is hard to imagine her coming back. Perhaps Fox News will give her a paid seat as a commentator or host in the run-up to the next election? Or she can hire a ghostwriter and try to make it is a less-vicious, intellectually vapid version of Ann Coulter. The odds on her success are quite long with both those scenarios, but she can try.

Fortunately for this country being an elected official will no longer be an option for Sarah Palin. There is no way she can survive her post-election performance as a Governor and her decision to step down. Her career as an elected official is completely over.  Now she has no track record and no home base of operation. Just ask Rudy Giuliani how difficult it is to run for national office when your home state loathes you.

The Bing Thing

I expect the new search offering from Microsoft, named Bing, will generate as much social media chatter as it will coverage from the traditional media, or air time from paid placement. And I expect that much of that chatter will be negative, as the masses are quick to attack the evil empire of Microsoft. Google is cool geek, Microsoft is uncool geek, and on and on. The launch of Bing will also generate some really strong discussion about the nature of search and how search may evolve. Google may have won the battle for search, but war will never end.

Google improved the search engine enough to essentially kill the search directory model, which preceded it. It's simple presentation, meaty algorithms, and unobtrusive presentation of paid results provides a solid framework for organic search results.

In developing Bing Microsoft did not tilt at an organic search windmill. Instead they are focusing on certain tasks, like finding medical advice or shopping for electronics or travel. Bing will layer subcategories onto the organic search results, allowing the user to see the search results in logical groups. Users will be able to filter results by type, such as articles, reviews, coupons, retailers, etc, or by location, or price. This may sound like a step back towards search directories, which tried to organize information by topic. In a way it is adding a directory-like layer, but in a manner which provides the user with an additional line if inquiry beyond the initial organic results. The ability to divide search results into pre-set categories is something Google does not offer, and could be a competitive advantage for Bing.

It is easy to nay say, or to suggest that Microsoft will ruin the experience by simple being Microsoft. Microsoft is rightly accused of trying to think too much for user, which can make Microsoft software extremely frustrating at times. To think that Google doesn't do the same thing in some ways, despite their stripped-down user experience, is perhaps a mistake. The all-powerful algorithm is thinking for the user. The more information the user provides Google in the search query, the better the results, but not all users are that search savvy. Bing wants to offer a next step for those users, essentially saying to them "can I organize these search results for you in a away that might be more helpful?" It is in the delicate balance of offering additional options, versus forcing them upon the user, that Bing may succeed or fail.

In focusing on shopping and advice, Microsoft has positioned Bing right where the most money is spent in pay-per-click advertising. Bing's paid model doesn't look too different from Google's, but starting where the money strikes me as smart business and might help generate some real revenue. As revenue is an important measure of the success of such ventures, the ability to generate some revenue would drive additional interest and put some wind in Bing's sails.

Todd Helton turning into Wade Boggs?

Todd Helton and Wade Boggs share a career batting average of .328, and Helton's career on base percentage is .428, just 7 points higher than Boggs OBP of .415. Helton has averaged 46 doubles a year, Boggs averaged 38. Both won gold gloves at an infield corner position. The big difference is Helton's power. Helton has averaged 30 home runs per 162 games while Boggs averaged just 8. That said, Helton hasn't hit 30 home runs since 2004 and he is on pace to hit only 13 in 2009.

What Helton is doing this season is getting on base, sporting a .341 battaing average and .398 OPS, and if he can stay healthy for 150 games and keep this pace he will have 189 hits and 26 doubles. Those stats look a lot like Wade Boggs between 1989 and 1991. Helton is even sporting some Boggs-like facial hair.

WordPress Rocks, TypePad ... not so much

I use WordPress professionally, TypePad personally. TypePad is just a quirky nightmare in comparison to WordPress. The latest example? I no longer have tags (called categories in TypePad, WordPress has categories and tags, apparently that is too hard for TypePad). My tags just vanished one day. No reason, just vanished. This is on the heels of several episodes where my style sheets and template bought the farm for no reason; hadn't touched anything. No comparison, use WordPress.

alas, alas

Amy Poehler is the funniest woman in America. If you saw Saturday Night Live when she left on maternity leave, you sensed something was missing. It wasn't the election. It wasn't Tina Fey. That something was Amy Poehler. When she is in play you can see the energy in her face. She is the difference.

I am a huge Amy Poehler fan, a huge fan (big fan). The first episode of Parks & Recreation was terrible. Awful. Miserable. I like The Office. The American version has, in time, found its voice and is every bit as good as the British original. I get the joke, that wasn't the issue. It was just awful. It didn't even have good moments. The closest was possibly catching the canvassers playing Rock Band, but even that was a subtle laugh. It was terrible.

Airing the first episode before The Office may make it worse. The Office is a mature show, it is mid-stride, looking good, has some swagger. The comparison makes Parks and Recreation's debut even worse.

Alas, alas.

Falling Housing Starts are a Good Thing

The news that housing starts fell in March after an unexpected rise in February is considered bad news. Add the fall in new building permits and the analysts are in a funk. I understand this, a lot of our economy over the last decade has been fueled by aggressive home building and sales. But wait, wasn't that what got us into trouble? Hmmm.

Perhaps we should be pleased that new home construction has declined? I'd like to see a revised "normal" level of new home construction, a lower normal. There is plenty of housing stock in the marketplace judging from real estate inventories and foreclosure rates. We don't really need a lot of new housing at this point (we really don't). I'd like to see some home improvement and rehab tax credits. That would stir up some activity in the sector without adding more inventory. The additional inventory only puts more downward pressure on the price of existing homes. The mortgage loan limits -- at $417,000 across much of the country -- have already put a damper on sales of homes costing more than $500,000.

There is also a direct correlation between  construction and unauthorized immigration. Construction became a major source of jobs for workers entering the country illegally. As housing starts declined, so did illegal border crossings. At a time when municipal budgets are being cut by declining tax revenues, the fewer people municipalities need to support with social services the better (please note, this is by no means an anti-immigration rant, just a sliver of economic data to consider).

Home builders are still cranking out 500,000 new homes a month.There are approximately 308 million people in the U.S., and the population is growing at just under one percent. Those 308 million people live in a combined 130 million housing units. Even if every new American needed a new house, just for themselves, we would need approximately 2 million new homes. At the current rate of new home construction we would meet our annual need in 4 months.

Granted, factors like population shift to the Southwest mean less demand in some areas of the country and more demand in others. Housing starts are much more likely in high-growth areas, but they are by no means limited to those areas.Too many jobs have become dependent upon new home construction, and new housing starts seem to have as much to do with keeping those jobs than meeting actual demand (starting to sound like the U.S. auto-industry?) A contracting new home construction industry will be painful, but in the long run those resources would be better utilized creating something we actually need.

Gaining a Perspective: Four Books on Africa

The American media and public, already intrigued by Somali piracy, is now in a full-on lather of interest due to the recent hijacking and rescue of an American ship and crew. Somalia is back in the news, a reprise of the Black Hawk Down period. The same questions are being asked: How could Somalia be so violent? How did it become a failed state? Is this another example of Muslim extremists run amok?

Like most Americans, I know very little about what is happening in Africa or much about African history. I probably know more than the average American (I doubt that is hard) but I don’t know much. Lately I’ve been trying to change that by diving into a number of books. I started with Power, Faith, and Fantasy: America in the Middle East: 1776 to the Present by Michael Oren. Oren traces American involvement in the Middle East back to 1700s. The parallels between today and the early involvement are stunning, particularly the evangelical mindset with which Americans approached both religion and democracy in the Middle East. I’m still working on the book, but as is typical with me I have four going at the same time.

The second book is King Leopold’s Ghost by Adam Hochschild. The book is not great, but it provides a very solid overview of the exploitation of Congo from the late 1800s to the early 1900s.  Hochschild seems to relish both caricatures and unsupported speculation when describing people, something that I cannot stand when reading a work of history. That has slowed me down, but I am almost through the book and I am learning perhaps more than I’d like to know.

Chief of Station, a memoir by Larry Devlin, the CIA station chief to Congo during the early Cold War period, was a good, quick read and an informative first-person account of the early, post-colonial years in the Congo.  The fourth book is by far the best and most compelling: The Zanzibar Chest by journalist Aiden Hartley. The book contains two stories. The first is of the author’s experiences as a journalist in Kenya, Somalia, Rwanda, Ethiopia, and the Balkans. The second story, which is embedded within the first, traces the experience of his own father and another British man named Peter Davey. From the first story you learn a lot about the nature of conflict in modern Africa, from the second you gain a telling perspective on the tragic consequences of European involvement in Africa during the 20th century.  I have a few more chapters to read in the Zanzibar Chest, but as I don’t want it to end I have been finishing up King Leopold’s Ghost.

In concert the four books have been a wonderful, albeit depressing, primer in 20th Century African history. I can sum up what I have learned in a paragraph. During the colonial period forced labor, slavery, sadistic murder and disease decimated African populations and violently disrupted societies. The colonial powers extracted minerals, rubber, oil, and personal glory.  During the post-colonial period the United States, Russia, and China pumped weapons and ammunition into the continent to fight the cold war and meddled with emerging governments and elections (including the funding mercenary armies for warlords). The result, more death and destruction, and the continued fraying of African societies. Then the United States decided Africa represented a battlefield in the war on terror and saw an Al Qaeda threat in numerous countries (something Al-Qaeda has made some effort to live up to, although with little success). Which brings us to the current period of chaos and misery across large swaths of Africa, with little prospect of change as long as the rest of the world continues to use Africa as a battleground for ideological and economic struggles.

The four-book African taster’s menu may not be for everyone, but I do highly recommend the Zanzibar Chest. It too, may not be for everyone. It is at times sad, depicts graphic violence, and chronicles the author’s relationship with drugs, sex, and alcohol.  It is valuable because it provides an interesting first-person source from which you learn a lot about violent conflict that neither a traditional news story or a history book can show you.